Saturday, May 19, 2012 As of 10:56 AM EDT

Featured Insights —

By Chuck Carnevale   Author saparator   May 18, 2012
chuck carnevale
Chuck Carnevale

There is a confluence of factors that are painting a very odd picture of current investor behavior. Common sense and a careful analysis of the market dynamics between equities and bonds today would indicate that investors should be acting in the exact opposite manner than they are. Interest rates are hovering at a 100-year low, which creates two problems for investors. First, there is not enough return from bonds to fund a retiree's income needs or to fight inflation. Second, investing in bonds with interest rates so low makes it riskier to own bonds today than it has been in over a century.

Conversely, many US equities, especially blue-chip dividend paying equities with long histories of paying and increasing their dividends are at historically low valuations, and therefore, offering historically above-average current yields. Furthermore, high-quality blue-chip US corporations are perhaps in better financial health than we've seen in decades. Consequently, low valuation and healthy corporate financials would indicate that quality equities offer lower real levels of risk and higher long-term returns than they have in decades.

Nevertheless, investors are not only making a classic mistake, I believe they are making a very obvious and thus quite avoidable mistake. It is an undeniable fact that bond prices go down when interest rates go up. Since interest rates cannot go to zero or below, it logically follows that interest rates have nowhere to go over the long term but up. Perhaps, as many believe, federal intervention may keep rates low for another year or so. But in the longer run, the powerful forces of the market can only be contained for so long.

 
By David John Marotta   Author saparator   May 16, 2012
marotta_david_john
David John Marotta

From the mailbag:

"I'm 44 years old. I'd like to initiate a series of substantially equal withdrawls from my traditional IRA account. Basing on the IRS single lifetime expectancy table and current IRA value, this would be roughly $3000/year. I'd like to use these funds to slowly purchase physical silver over the course of 5-10 years. I'm interested in diversifying into hard metals."

- Worried

If you start a Substantially Equal Periodic Payment (SEPP), the IRS requires you to continue the withdrawals for five years or until you are 59.5, whichever comes last. Starting a program now, means you will be required to continue the withdrawals for the next 15 years. This withdraws the money during your peak earning potential and puts the money into a taxable account where there is a headwind of higher taxes on interest, dividends and capital gains.

 
By Erik McCurdy   Author saparator   May 15, 2012
Erik McCurdy
Erik McCurdy

Last week, Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) made the rounds on financial television once again to discuss the current state of their recession call from late last year. Achuthan reaffirmed their belief that a return to economic contraction is likely in 2012, noting that the coincident data used to officially define economic cycle boundaries continue to signal slowing growth.

   
By Steven D Hamilton   Author saparator   May 15, 2012
steve hamilton
Steve Hamilton

We have received several inquiries over the last year or so about using IRAs for nontraditional investments. This frequently means real estate, perhaps commercial real estate to house a closely-held business. It might also mean using the IRA to start the business itself.

These types of transactions are not without risk. One has the risk of business failure or decline in property value, of course, but also the risk of disqualifying the IRA itself. This would be very bad, as this makes the IRA immediately taxable. To protect against this, one should roll-over the required funds from the "main" IRA into a separate IRA. Should the unfortunate occur, only the roll-over IRA will blow-up. One has contained the damage.

A nontraditional investment requires a self-directed IRA. You will need to find a custodian that will permit nontraditional investments. Most will not. Let's say you found one. Let's use the acronym SDIRA for a self-directed IRA in our discussion.

 
By Wade Slome   Author saparator   May 14, 2012
Wade Slome
Wade Slome

The financial crisis of 2008-2009 was painful, not to mention the Flash Crash of 2010; the Debt Ceiling / Credit Downgrade of 2011; and the never-ending European saga. Needless to say, these and other events have caused pain akin to burning one's hand on the stove. This unpleasant effect has rubbed off on investors.

Admitting one has a problem is half the battle of conquering a challenge. A key challenge for many investors is understanding the crippling effects fear can have on personal investment decisions. While there are certainly investors who constantly see financial markets through rose-colored glasses (my glasses I argue are only slightly tinted), Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman and his partner Amos Tversky understand the pain of losses can be twice as painful as the pleasure experienced through gains (see diagram below).

   

What's New

Public Financial Markets >

Blue-Chip Dividend Growth Stocks Today’s Strong Option For Retirement Portfolios - Part 1

There is a confluence of factors that are painting a very odd picture of current investor behavior. Common sense and a careful analysis of the market dynamics between equities and bonds today would indicate that investors should be acting in the exact opposite manner than they are. Interest rates are hovering at a 100-year low, which creates two problems for investors. First, >>

Considering A Withdrawal From Your IRA To Purchase Physical Silver? Think again.
The Pleasure/Pain Principle

Property Investments >

Housing Market Exhibits Early Signs Of Bottoming Behavior

During the summer of 2006, our analysis indicated that the top of the housing market was likely in place and we predicted several years of financial market turmoil as the most speculative real estate bubble in US history imploded. The initial phase of the secular decline in housing prices has proceeded exactly as expected since then and it has now been more than five years since >>

Flipping Over Flipping – 2012 Update
Post-Bubble Existing-Home Sales Revised Significantly Lower

Real Estate Finance >

Mortgage Servicing and the Road Ahead

When the mortgage meltdown occurred in 2008, the mortgage broker was the first hit by the wave of change struck by the mortgage industry and regulatory reform. In 2011, the mortgage servicers, the back side of mortgage industry, are having its day of reckoning. The mortgage industry will have several more years before mortgage professionals will refer to these past years of mortgage correction as an historical >>

Strategic Defaults Revisited: It Could Get Very Ugly
Why the CMBS Market Is Relevant to Recovery

Estate Planning >

What You Need to Know about Beneficiary Designations

In many cases a will or living trust has no effect on some of your important assets such as life insurance and a 401 (k) account. Your beneficiary designations control who receives those assets. A comprehensive estate plan includes beneficiary designations that fall outside of your will and trust but are part of your overall estate plan. You want each part of your plan to work effectively and efficiently to >>

Family Meetings – An Estate Planning Secret That Can Benefit Your Family Right Now
IRS Memo may have implications for Medicaid Trusts

Taxes & Financial Planning >

IRAs and Nontraditional Investments

We have received several inquiries over the last year or so about using IRAs for nontraditional investments. This frequently means real estate, perhaps commercial real estate to house a closely-held business. It might also mean using the IRA to start the business itself. These types of transactions are not without risk. One has the risk of business failure or decline in property value, of course, but also the >>

Something New In Gifting of Family Limited Partnerships
Local Lodging Expense Rules

Economy & Finance >

ECRI Reaffirms Recession Call Again

Last week, Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) made the rounds on financial television once again to discuss the current state of their recession call from late last year. Achuthan reaffirmed their belief that a return to economic contraction is likely in 2012, noting that the coincident data used to officially define economic cycle boundaries continue to signal slowing growth. >>

Looking to China to Fire Up Its Economy
The Unemployment Rate Is Not The Most Important Thing

Global Business >

Outsized Outsourcing Opportunity in the Philippines?

It's no surprise the NBC show, "Outsourced" was set in India—in 2011, revenues for the country's outsourcing and information technology industries reached $100 billion, according to The New York Times. However, if the now-cancelled show gets remade in the future, it may take place in the up-and-coming location of the Philippines. Historically about 10 percent of the country's GDP growth has been from >>

The World’s Infrastructure Plans
Appreciating China to its Fullest

Philanthropy >

Hazard of Being a Volunteer Nonprofit Director

Can you be on the hook for unpaid payroll taxes if you are a volunteer director for a nonprofit? What if you do not have authority to write checks? Let's take a look at the recent (March 8, 2012) U.S. District Court decision Bunch v Commissioner. Perceptions, Inc. was a Tennessee nonprofit formed in 2004, Perceptions provided supportive living service for developmentally disabled clients. The incorporators >>

Legal Issues Facing Nonprofit Start-up Organizations
Major Gifts - Part II: Considerations for Legal Compliance and Avoiding Lawsuits