Featured Insights —
- By Frank Holmes
- November 26, 2013
If the sweeping economic reforms planned by Chinese leaders during the Third Plenum can be our guide, it looks to be a promising decade for global investors. Details released recently confirmed President Xi Jinping's concerted efforts to move China toward a market-based economy that mirrors the West.
The plan's comprehensive nature and the level of clarity evidently pleased investors, as many Chinese stocks experienced a pop. We're pleased U.S. Global Investors' China Region Fund (USCOX) also participated:
- By Steven D Hamilton
- November 25, 2013
Last week Senator Baucus released the third in a series of staff discussions on tax reform. This discussion focuses on depreciation (also called "cost recovery") and tax accounting methods.
Not the most exciting topics, and I will not miss Thursday Night Football reading up on them. Let's review them quickly.
The Senator leads off with:
- By Wade Slome
- November 25, 2013
Take Me Out to the Stock Game). The tide has modestly turned in 2013 but as I've written over the last six months, investor skepticism has reigned supreme (see Most Hated Bull Market Ever & Investors Snore).With the Dow Jones Industrial Average approaching and now breaking the 16,000 level, there has been a lot of discussion about whether the stock market is an inflating bubble about to burst due to excessive price appreciation? The reality is a fear bubble exists...not a valuation bubble. This fear phenomenon became abundantly clear from 2008 – 2012 when $100s of billions flowed out of stocks into bonds and trillions in cash got stuffed under the mattress earning near 0% (see
- By Michael Kirsch
- November 25, 2013
I'm sorry for my oversight which wouldn't have happened if...."I had thought that apologizing was a straightforward act, but I now realize that it is a nuanced art form. We've all heard the 'mistakes were made' version, usually issued by politicians who attempt to insert a layer of passive voice insulation between themselves and their screw ups. There is also the ever present conditional apology which by definition falls short of complete responsibility acceptance. The template here is: "
- By Sy Harding
- November 22, 2013
The minutes of the Fed's last FOMC meeting, released this week, confirm that the Fed believes it must begin to taper back its stimulus soon. At this point, the longer QE continues the greater the risk of asset bubbles forming, the bursting of which would destabilize the economy and make it even more difficult to exit.
Economists and analysts have been concerned from the beginning about how the Fed would be able to reverse the massive QE stimulus, which has been the major driving force of the anemic economic recovery and the powerful bull market in stocks, without also reversing the momentum of both.
Taxes & Financial Planning >
Tax Provisions Expiring on December 31, 2013
We have been reviewing tax provisions scheduled to expire at the end of this year, December 31, 2013. This is an unhappy, contemporary development in federal taxation. Taxpayers in recent years have waited on Congress to come to the rescue, even if that rescue was in January and retroactive. I am not optimistic for any breakthrough this year. The Senate nuclear-option fiasco last week >>
Caught In A (IRS Mortgage) Trap
Senator Baucus Revs Up Tax Reform Discussion
Estate Planning >
Dispute Over Ashes Leads to 6 Month Jail Term for “Paramour”
Freddy Loucks, age 43, of Mansfield, Pennsylvania died in the early morning of November 22, 2009 when his pickup truck crashed. He was not wearing a seat belt. His passenger, Monica Miller, described in his obituary as his "loving companion," was wearing a seat belt and only sustained minor injuries. See, Tioga County Man Killed in Crash, Williamsport Sun-Gazette, November 23, >>
Going Wrong with a Do-It-Yourself Will
What Happens If Your Name Isn’t On the Deed and Your Spouse Dies?
Economy & Finance >
Will The Real Economy Please Stand Up?
Are economic reports finally indicating an acceleration in the economic recovery - or not? Markets need to know. Investors need to know. Most importantly, the Fed needs to know. The prognosis changes from month to month, even week to week, and this week even day to day, as expectations for Fed action move from taper on, to taper off, to taper on and back again. >>
The Fed Is Backed Into A Corner
To Taper or Not to Taper…That is the Question?
Public Financial Markets >
Macro Factors Distract Wealth Creation
What do Obamacare, Federal Government debt/budget deals, Quantitative Easing and jobs data have in common? To us they are all types of macroeconomic factors on which most investors focus. We believe the reason most investors focus on these types of news stories is because they can influence the US stock market over the next six to twelve months instead of the next 10 to 20 years. In >>
Can Good News be Good News?
High Quality and Time-Horizon Arbitrage
Dressed to the Nines with Gold
While paper gold is getting the cold shoulder in the West, the Love Trade buyers in the East are wrapping their arms around all the physical gold they can get their hands on. In the third quarter, gold jewelry demand was at the highest level since 2010. Buying out of love in the East was significantly higher during the first nine months of the year compared to demand the same time last >>
Big Ideas on Gold and Resources
Being Contrarian Could Lead to Lucrative Energy Plays
Global Business >
From the Taj Mahal to Westminster Abbey
Notes from a Global InvestorI recently returned from India, a nation where an incredible 600 million people are under the age of 25. That's nearly double the entire population of the U.S.! What's amazing about that figure is that, unlike the 1970s when India had no global footprint, today's generation is increasingly gaining access to the Internet. Social networking >>
Understanding the Rise of China
Nail Not in Emerging Market Coffin Yet
Property Investments >
Real Estate Mini-Bubble Deflating May Be Economy’s Next Problem
The housing and automobile industries are the main driving forces of the economy - in both directions. That makes sense since consumer spending accounts for 70% of the economy, and homes and cars are the biggest ticket items consumers spend money on. More importantly, unlike most purchases, it's not just spending the money they made last week, but through loans and mortgages it's >>
Fixing the Mortgage Mess
Will Speculators Rescue the Housing Market?
Make Your Donors Choose YOU as Their Favorite Nonprofit
Are your donors choosing your organization as their favorite nonprofit? Wish they would, don't you? I bet you are spending lots of time on planning those terrific solicitations to them. But I bet you are NOT spending enough time communicating with your donors in between your solicitations. Here's our huge problem: we are overemphasizing the Asking, and we are neglecting the >>